Like other people, I like to start the year by making predictions about what will happen, particularly with respect to self-driving cars and autonomous vehicles. Following the example of Scott Alexander, I assign probabilities to my predictions.
No Level 5 self-driving cars will be deployed anywhere in the world.
Level 4 driverless vehicles, without a safety operator, will remain publicly available, somewhere in the world.
No “self-driving-only” public road will exist in the U.S.
Tesla will remain the industry leader in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.
An autonomy company will be acquired for at least $100 million.
Level 4 autonomous vehicles, with or without a safety operator, will remain publicly available in China.
C++ will remain the dominant programming language for autonomous vehicles.
A lidar-equipped vehicle will be available for sale to the general public.
My parents will not ride in an autonomous vehicle (except at Voyage or anywhere else I might work).
Tesla will not launch a robotaxi service.
Fully driverless low-speed vehicles will transport customers (not necessarily the general public).
Waymo will expand its public driverless transportation service beyond Phoenix.
A Chinese company will offer self-driving service, with or without a safety operator, to the public, outside of China.
A self-driving Class 8 truck will make a fully driverless trip on a public highway.
Aerial drone delivery will be available to the general public somewhere.
Tesla will remain the world’s most valuable automaker.
Fully driverless grocery delivery will be available somewhere in the US.
Tesla Full-Self Driving will offer Level 3 (driver attention not necessary until requested by the vehicle) functionality somewhere in the world.
A member of the public will die in a collision involving a Level 4 autonomous vehicle (including if the autonomous vehicle is not at-fault).
A company besides Waymo will offer driverless service to the general public, somewhere in the US.
A company will deploy driverless vehicles for last-mile delivery.
Level 4 self-driving, with or without a safety operator, will be available to the public somewhere in Europe.
A Level 3 vehicle will be offered for sale to the public, by a company other than Tesla.
The US requires driver-monitoring systems in new vehicles.
The industry coalesces around a safety standard for driverless vehicles.
Self-driving service will be available to the general public, with or without a safety operator, in India.