At the beginning of every year I predict what will happen by the end of the year, mainly with regard to autonomous vehicles. Then at the end of every year I see how I did.
This year’s predictions are different than those of years past, because this year I am avoiding self-driving car predictions. Now that I am a Cruise employee, I need to avoid any public predictions that relate to Cruise or GM. I tried drafting a set of predictions about the industry and caveating them with some version of “not counting Cruise or GM”, but it got too awkward.
Instead, this year I am predicting a grab bag of topics that are of personal interest to me.
100% Confidence
The Chicago Cubs will not win the 2022 World Series.
No states will secede from the US.
The Chicago Cubs will not win the World Series.
Linux will remain my primary operating system for personal computing.
90% Confidence
The Phoenix Suns will not win the NBA Championship.
Teddy Bridgewater will not start the first game of the regular season for the Denver Broncos.
The 2022 Winter Olympics will take place.
Joe Biden will remain the President of the United States.
China will not mount a land invasion of Taiwan.
80% Confidence
My now-five year-old son will no longer wear a mask to school.
I will not be hospitalized because of COVID.
Republicans will hold a majority in either house of Congress.
I will travel internationally.
70% Confidence
The CDC will recommend I receive a 4th COVID booster shot.
I will not use a Mac as my primary work computer.
My primary residence will remain in Burlingame, California.
US economy will not experience a recession.
US will not invade another country.
60% Confidence
I will be able to work in my office without wearing a mask.
I will contract COVID.
Kiev will remain independent of Russian control.
I will live more than two months of the year away from my primary residence.
S&P 500 will finish the year above where it started.
50% Confidence
Somebody in my extended family will be hospitalized because of COVID.
I will buy a car.
My personal inbox will have zero messages at some point during the year.
I will feel an earthquake.
Average US housing prices will decline nationwide.
David Silver 