Electric Scooters

In the Before Times, I used to commute to San Francisco by car or train, drop my son at preschool in one part of the city, and take a short ride on an electric scooter to my office in another part of the city.

I really enjoyed the scooter ride, although I can’t defend why I would never purchase a motorcycle but I gleefully navigated a scooter through San Francisco traffic.

So I read with some interest a story in City Monitor called, “The future of transportation is small and electric.” The story is largely about the potential of electric scooters to dramatically reduce pollution in Asia.

“In India, people purchase 17 million motorcycles and scooters every year, and only about three million cars and trucks. The motorcycles can be quite cheap — and getting people to switch to electric can be strongly influenced by subsidies, tax advantages and other promotional policies.”

I’ve only taken a few trips to southeast Asia, but I have always been overwhelmed by the volume of motorcycle and scooter traffic. India, in particular, has some of the worst air pollution in the world due to these vehicles.

“It’s clear that getting gas vehicles off the streets can make a quick difference in air quality. Delhi, India’s capital, discovered this phenomenon in April, just a few weeks into the first Covid-19 lockdown. With most of its 5.5 million motorcycles sidelined, the city, deemed by the World Health Organization to be among the world’s most polluted, experienced something it hadn’t seen in decades — blue skies — and levels of harmful particles in the air fell by close to 60%.”

I look forward to a future world of blue skies and no (or at least much less) air pollution.

Tesla Talking With Samsung About 5nm Chip

According to a Korean website called Asiae, Tesla is talking with Samsung about building an infotainment chip based on Samsung’s 5nm technology.

I did not realize this, but Samsung is already building Tesla’s current, Hardware 3.0 custom chip. That chip is based on Samsung’s 14nm technology.

Apparently the 5nm technology is based on extreme ultravoilet lithography, a technique that only Samsung and TSMC utilize.

I’ve always thought about chip manufacturing as a kind of boring and commodity endeavor, but with all the analysis of Intel vs. Samsung vs. TSMC vs. NVIDIA vs. Hauwei, I should probably start reading more about extreme ultraviolet lithography.

Electric Vehicle Monday

A couple of interesting news stories crossed the wire recently, with respect to electric vehicles (H/T Reilly Brennan).

In The Drive, John Voelcker explains all the caveats around GM’s recent announcement targeting an all-electric light duty vehicle fleet by 2035.

“Many people and companies aspire to many things. I aspire to get back in shape after a year of mostly isolation, for instance. Whether it actually happens is a very different story.”

In Harvard Business Review, a trio of academics suggest that automotive manufacturers follow Tesla’s lead and divert a little bit (ahem, a billion dollars each) to building out an electric vehicle charging network.

There’s a fair bit to take issue with in the analysis, starting with this confident but unsupported assertion:

“The reason why consumers still choose Teslas over products like Audi’s eTron or attractive EVs from GM’s Buick, Cadillac, GMC, and Chevy brands is perhaps surprisingly simple. They can drive their Teslas for long distances in full confidence that they will find convenient locations at which to recharge their vehicle.”

But the article raises a question that seems obvious but hadn’t occurred to me (at least not in any deep way) — why don’t gas stations install electric charging units?

The HBR article makes passing mention of this:

“Many existing fossil fuel energy firms, for example, have gas station assets that will eventually become stranded and could be repurposed for electric vehicles.”

But the analysis doesn’t go much deeper than that.

This is a question that charging network startups like Blink must think about constantly.

For sure, the economics are different. Charging cars takes much longer, so vehicle turnover is much lower. Gas stations are often affiliated with oil extraction companies, which might complicate adding electric power stations connected to the normal grid. Probably there are permitting issues.

But none of these seem insurmountable, especially as electric vehicle sales begin to increase and seem poised to explode.

And yet…I don’t think I’ve ever seen a gas station with electric charging bays. So what’s the story?

Download Luminar Lidar Data

Volvo has just published a dataset called Cirrus which includes camera data and Luminar lidar data for 6,285 frames. The dataset includes 8 categories of annotations: “Vehicle, Large Vehicle, Pedestrian, Bicycle, Animal, Wheeled Pedestrian, Motorcycle, Trailer.”

I love how many companies are publishing datasets. This seems to especially make sense for a supplier like Luminar. Engineers anywhere can try out Luminar data without having to engage a sales rep or even convince their own managers.

The name of the dataset, “Cirrus,” highlights the range of Luminar’s lidar. At 250m, Luminar lidar is high range, just as Cirrus clouds are high altitude.

Driverless Robotaxis In China

Yesterday, AutoX announced the launch of its driverless robotaxi service to the public in Shenzhen, China.

As I wrote in Forbes.com, the rollout resembles the process Waymo took to launch its driverless Waymo One service in Arizona, but AutoX is progressing much faster.

Whereas Waymo tested self-driving cars with human safety operators for a decade before advancing to driverless vehicles, AutoX was founded in only 2016 and just began testing fully driverless vehicles a few months ago.

This surprised me:

Also like Waymo, the base vehicle for the AutoX service is the Chrysler Pacifica minivan. The selection of an American automotive manufacturer for this initial program is notable because AutoX has partnerships with many Chinese manufacturers, including Dongfeng Motors, Shanghai Auto, BYD, and Chery Automobile.

There’s even an in-flight safety video you can watch. Read the whole thing.

Deep Dive on Mobileye REM Maps

Yesterday, I posted a brief overview of a couple of presentations Mobileye CEO Amnon Shashua gave at CES 2021 this month. I really enjoyed these presentations, in large part because over the years I’ve read less about Mobileye and know less about them than many other companies in the automotive technology ecosystem.

Today, I re-watched Shashua’s “deep dive” on Mobileye’s REM mapping approach. It’s quite informative, so I took notes.

  • REM is a Mobileye brand name that stands for Road Experience Management
  • The maps are generated from cameras. In the future, Mobileye’s lidar and radar will be designed to work with these camera-only maps, not the other way around.
  • In particular, even future lidar and radar systems will not use standard, point-cloud-based HD maps. Point clouds take up too much storage space to be practical, particularly for updating from a huge fleet of vehicles.
  • Instead of point clouds, REM uses “semantic” maps, that record sparse information, such as driveable paths, stop lines, and traffic signal locations.
  • Identifying this semantic segmentation and uploading it to the cloud takes 10 kb of data transfer per kilometer. This costs somebody (the manufacturer?) $1 per year, on average.
  • All of this begs a question, though — are maps even necessary?
  • In theory, maps aren’t necessary. After all, humans drive without maps (in many scenarios). Humans just figure out the road as we drive.
  • Artificial intelligence can do the same thing, but AI isn’t nearly as good as humans at this (yet). The Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) for an AI will be low — lots of problems.
  • Solution: prepare a lot of this information in advance, and store it in the map.
  • Shashua says that everyone is using a map, even if they say they’re not. Pretty clear that this is a reference to Tesla.
  • Mobileye’s maps have three performance goals: Scale (consumer vs. robotaxi), Up-To-Dateness (real-time), Accuracy (cm-level)
  • Mobileye has a division which builds lidar-based HD Maps, so they know the pros and cons of this approach
  • Lidar-based HD maps are too detailed. The AI driver only need information for a 200m radius around the vehicle, but HD maps contain very detailed information about the entire world.
  • On the flip side, point clouds are just coordinates in space. AI needs semantic meaning: drivable paths, priority, crosswalks, stopping & yield lines.
  • Calculating this in real-time is theoretically possible, but practically impossible: too many conflicting signs and signals, too much noise, too much going on
  • Mobileye is now creating AV Map, which are not HD Maps: Scalability everywhere, Accuracy in 200m radius, Semantic features generated from wisdom of crowd
  • Map creation process: Harvesting -> Alignment -> Modeling & Semantics
  • In the photo above, only data marked by yellow lines in the photo is uploaded to the cloud. That’s the important information.
  • Mobileye extracts semantic meaning from the data and uses splines to represent driveable paths.
  • Currently, Mobileye maps 8M km of roads every day (6 countries). Unclear if this is 8M unique km, or the same 1km mapped by 8M vehicles every day.
  • By 2024, they’ll be mapping 1B km of roads every day (the whole planet).

Mobileye: Redundancy, Mapping, Safety

At this month’s virtual 2021 Consumer Electronics Show, Mobileye presented a lot. CEO Amnon Shashua sat for a friendly interview with Ed Niedermeyer, and Shashua also gave a standalone hour-long presentation about Mobileye’s technology.

Shashua highlighted three areas of differentiation that provide competitive advantages for Mobileye:

  • Redundancy
  • Mapping
  • Safety

Redundancy

The plan seems to be that Mobileye will build a camera-only driver assistance system, and then layer radar and lidar on top to get to Level 4 autonomy by 2025.

Mapping

Mobileye has worked to identify minimal amounts of high-valuable semantic mapping data that it can collect from each customer vehicle. Shashua says that uploading this data back to Mobileye costs about $1 per vehicle per year.

Safety

Several years ago Mobileye published RSS: Responsibility-Sensitive Safety. This is Mobileye’s approach to safety. Shashua views this framework as a key advantage for Mobileye. I confess I don’t understand how this approach compares to other efforts to validate AV safety.

I’m not sure how much to believe in the power of these advantages. But Mobileye is the world’s premier ADAS vendor and in the past I’ve found Mobileye a bit hard to learn about. So it’s a step forward to even get a sense of how they view their own advantages.

Argo’s 4th Generation Hardware

In Ground Truth, Argo’s autonomous vehicle publication, CTO Brett Browning provides an overview of their new hardware stack.

“Our new SDS [self-driving system] leverages customized components — not off-the-shelf stuff — including high-resolution cameras, lidar, radar, microphones, and inertial sensors, that meet rigorous industry safety standards.”

A few points struck me.

Microphones

Argo’s new setup includes three microphones, “to effectively listen for emergency responder vehicles.”

Waymo includes these sensors as well. I wonder how else Argo might be able to use audio, beyond first-responder detection.

Sensor Cleaning

“The new lidar base contains water jets for cleaning and fans for cooling, allowing the sensors to efficiently operate in extreme temperatures and for the optical windows to be automatically cleaned if they’re ever obstructed by rain or dirt.”

Making sure that all of the sensors is clean is one of those operational details that engineers could ignore a few years ago. But for production vehicles, this becomes critical. Argo must care about this even more than most companies, given its focus on operating in a wide variety of climates.

Redundancy

The post mentions several times that the new stack has computation redundancy.

“We have two independent computing systems that serve to maintain safe operations.”

The description is a bit vague on some important details. It’s unclear whether the secondary stack (labeled Complementary Autonomous Vehicle System — CAVS) is “fail-safe” or “fail-operational.” That is, if the primary system fails, can CAVS complete the vehicle’s route, or does it simply pull to the side safely and wait for assistance?

The post is also a bit unclear as to whether CAVS is a separate and redundant system, or whether it participates in the functionality of the primary system.

“… the computers use different detection algorithms so the backup computer has a unique perception ability which improves the robustness of response in an unexpected situation.”


Regardless of the nitty gritty details, it sounds like this system is a big step forward for Argo!

Microsoft Joins Cruise And Cruise Joins Microsoft

This week Microsoft and Cruise announced a $2 billion investment from the former into the latter. The focus of the partnership is squarely on cloud computing. Press releases from both companies specified Microsoft as the “preferred cloud provider” of both Cruise and General Motors.

“Microsoft, as Cruise’s preferred cloud provider…”
“As Cruise and GM’s preferred cloud, we will apply the power of Azure to help them scale…”
“GM will work with Microsoft as its preferred public cloud provider”

What does it mean to be a “preferred cloud provider?”

Preference vs. Exclusivity

For starters, it seems likely that “preferred” does not mean “exclusive.”

That’s notable because a number of recent Waymo partnerships (with auto manufacturers, not with cloud providers) have referred to Waymo as an “exclusive” partner. For example:

“Waymo is now the exclusive global L4 partner for Volvo Car Group…”

Credits vs. Cash

I also wonder whether this framing means that Microsoft didn’t invest actual cash in Cruise, or at least not the headline $2 billion.

I remember hearing rumors (or maybe it was official) after Honda’s investment in Cruise, that much of that investment came in the form of manufacturing credits at Honda plants, not cash dollars. Similarly, I wonder if any of the $2 billion take the form of Azure credits.

Valuation

This investment values Cruise at $30 billion, which is basically the same as Waymo’s recent valuation about a year ago. This is a testament to Cruise’s progress. The valuation might also indicate of how eager Microsoft is for Cruise to become a credible competitor to Waymo, and (more importantly) Alphabet.

Partnerships vs. Purchase Orders

One of my favorite quotes in the tech industry is, “Favorite partnership for me is a purchase order. Defined charter, beginning, end.”

Waymo seems to mostly adhere to this philosophy. Their “partnerships”, mostly with automotive manufacturers, seem to largely amount to vendor-customer relationships.

Cruise, as well as most other companies in the self-driving industry, tend toward more a wider range of partnerships. The Microsoft investment might fall in that category, depending on the structure. Of course, it may also be a straightforward cash-for-equity transaction.

In any case, $30 billion is pretty amazing. Go Cruise!

Twighlight Of A Moonshot

Alphabet is shutting down Loon. You could be forgiven for not knowing Loon was even a thing that existed for Alphabet to shut down. Forgive the incredibly uncreative pun, but Loon never really got off the ground.

Astro Teller detailed the triumphs and struggles of Loon on his blog, reminding us what Loon was, and why.

“When we unveiled Loon in June 2013, we meant everything in its name. It was a way-out-there and risky venture. Not just fragile-balloons-on-the-edge-of-space risky, but risky at the core of the question it was asking. Could this be the radical idea that might finally bring abundant, affordable Internet access, not just to the next billion, but to the last billion? To the last unconnected communities and those least able to pay?”

I have very little knowledge of Loon and point you instead to Teller’s blog post and the Wikipedia page on Loon.

What interests me is this very public act of shutting down a startup. The folks who worked on Loon were probably very, very successful and smart, otherwise they wouldn’t have made it into X, Alphabet’s Moonshot Factory, in the first place.

And yet, even for them, this one didn’t work out.

I’ve been reading a lot of Dr. Seuss with my son recently, including Oh, the Places You’ll Go!

OH!
THE PLACES YOU’LL GO!

You’ll be on y our way up!
You’ll be seeing great sights!
You’ll join the high fliers
who soar to high heights.

You won’t lag behind, because you’ll have the speed.
You’ll pass the whole gang and you’ll soon take the lead.
Wherever you fly, you’ll be best of the best.
Wherever you go, you will top all the rest.

Except when you don’t.
Because, sometimes, you won’t.

I’m sorry to say so
but, sadly, it’s true
that Bang-ups
and Hang-ups
can happen to you.

You can get all hung up
in a prickle-ly perch.
And your gang will fly on.
You’ll be left in a Lurch.

The good news, and it is good news, is that shutting down Loon liberates everyone to work on something else.

When things aren’t going well, inertia can keep us tethered (again with the puns) to fruitless endeavors. Conceding failure is almost physically painful.

But I’ve found that once I make the decision to move on, all sorts of opportunities open up.

I expect that’s what will happen to the folks at Loon, and we’ll all be better off for it. Them most especially.

Good luck!